IEA says cuts 2018 average daily demand forecast by 110,000 bpd

MOSCOW, Oct 12 (PRIME) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday reduced its forecast for average global daily demand for oil by 110,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2018 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2019 due to a weaker economic growth forecast and higher market concerns.

"The forecast was slashed in the wake of forecasted weak economic growth, market concerns, rising oil prices and a revision of the Chinese demand figures,” the IEA said in a report.

OPEC said on Thursday that it again shaved off its forecast of global demand growth by 80,000 barrels per day in 2018 and by 50,000 barrels per day in 2019. OPEC now expects demand to rise 1.54 million barrels per day to 98.79 million barrels in 2018, and 1.36 million barrels per day to 100.15 million barrels in 2019.

The IEA said that Russia’s September compliance with the OPEC+ oil deal amounted to an average 66% in January–September with daily oil output of 11.74 million barrels, topping the October 2016 level, when the deal was introduced, by 140,000 barrels per day.

In November 2016, OPEC and non-OPEC states agreed to reduce their oil production to rebalance the market. Russia joined the agreement to cut the output by 300,000 barrels daily as compared with the level of October 2016. In 2017, the deal was prolonged until the end of 2018. In June, the participants decided to raise the output by 1 million barrels of oil per day.

The combined oil output of non-OPEC states in September fell by 200,000 barrels per day as compared with October 2016 with an average compliance level of 79% since the deal was signed. The level of compliance of all the members of the deal outside OPEC fell to 37% in September from 79% in August.

The OPEC states raised their combined daily oil output by 0.15 million barrels on the month to 32.78 million barrels per day in September, increasing their compliance with the deal to 121% from 118% in August, the agency said.

The Russian Energy Ministry and OPEC have repeatedly said that the participants of the agreement and the IEA use different methodologies for calculation compliance with the deal.

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